SUSA. 5/12-14. MoE 2.3%

Pearce (R) 36
Udall  (D) 60

Wilson (R) 35
Udall  (D) 61

The undecideds in this poll are amazing, just 4% agasint Pearce and 3% against Wilson, an remarkably tiny margin six months before an election. Udall's appeal is practically universal:

Udall leads among both men and women, young and old, white and Hispanic, regardless of opponent. 1 in 4 Republicans cross over and vote Democrat; 1 in 10 Democrats cross over to vote Republican.

Udall is unopposed in NM's June 3 primary, while Pearce and Wilson duke it out. SUSA identified a subset of Republican likely voters in this poll. The race is within the margin of error of 4.8%, with Pearce leading 49-46. Again, there's just a 2% undecided. Pearce has gained 12 points since the Republican race was last polled by SUSA six months ago. Wilson has lost 10.  Neither has been able to secure outgoing Sen. Domenici's endorsement, and won't before the primary. Pearce is calling himself the only "true conservative" in the race, while Wilson is tryng to pas herself off as a moderate, "common sense" Republican.

Which has brought the Club for Growth into the mix with a $200K ad buy attacking Wilson for supporting S-CHIP.

So this should be fun. The NM Republicans appear to be on track to nominate the CfG's guy, the extremist who would be weakest against Udall. This one is looking very good for the Dems. Pajama Pete's long Congressional tenure is at an end, and it's looking more and more like Heather Wilson's is, too. Just the icing on the cake.

By Deborah Klosky

I now drive like an old lady. Not that there's anything wrong with that. And not that we're stereotyping. The thing is, you probably do too - drive like old folks that is. At least in the eyes of Spanish drivers.

By Chris Nolan

Things are loosening up in Cuba. Cellphones aren't forbidden and with Fidel Castro's waning health and power ceded to his brother Raul, there's lots of reason to hope for serious change. To help things along, Castro critic and Cuban affairs...

By Scott Olin Schmidt

Today, the California Supreme Court has decided that, on equal protection grounds, the State cannot discriminate on gender when it comes to marriage. That's a great victory for equality. While opponents will decry the changes such a decision will have...

By Matthew Holt

Given that he's the presumptive Republican nominee, it's time to look at what would happen if Sen. John McCain won the election and the Republicans took Congress and they passed the plan that he's proposed. Of course, the good news is that what I'm about to describe is purely theoretical. Which in the case of the McCain program is a good thing

By Scott Olin Schmidt

Last September 26, I broke with conventional wisdom and predicted that the economy, not the war in Iraq, would be the deciding issue in the 2008 election. I was wrong. Ironically, the issue that President Bush heralded as the most...

By Chris Nolan

Being based in San Francisco, it's hard for Spot-on to escape the not-so-breaking news that this the 40th anniversary of 1968: Chicago, Tet Offensive, Paris, RFK and MLK shot, riots and mayhem. Yes, we know, this means Hippies are now...

By Jeanne Jackson

The lawyer sits across from us, trying his best to look concerned and caring, but clearly he is in a hurry. He has a waiting room full of people just like us and, he tells us, a month's backlog. We...

By Nicole Martinelli

Pink is still in. Even more so in Milan, Italy's fashion capital, where pregnant women can park for free in special pink spaces. The city recently launched a Pink Parking Program that by 2011 will give pregnant women a total...

By Gopika Kaul

That Bangalore is India's Information Technology capital is no news to anyone, since the city is almost always referred to as India's Silicon Valley. But, of late, it's been making news for the wrong, though somewhat related, reasons. Bangalore, with its high stress life, is now being called the suicide capital of India. The figures are alarming - 35 suicides per 100,000 people.

By Kevin Weeks

Sustainability: of, relating to, or being a method of harvesting or using a resource so that the resource is not depleted or permanently damaged. - Meriam-Webster Online. The definition above isn't wrong, but, it seems to me, it is...

Barack Obama has said for months that he "looks forward to having that debate with John McCain", usually referring to issues where Democrats are perceived as weaker than Republicans. In this video clip (h/t TPM) Obama responds to George Bush's "appeasement" attack yesterday and John McCain's embrace of it and in so doing signals clearly that the debate on foreign policy is on. I have to say, watching this, that I'm starting to believe that in Obama's hands, we really can finally win this debate.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, barack obama, john mccain, george bush (all tags)

We're not the only ones who think so. The unfair and unbalanced network earned that distinction from BuzzFlash. "For reporting that is an embarrassment to the profession of journalism, and for being beholden to corporate paymasters rather than the citizens of America."

Hmm, I wonder if Buzzflash could come up with a Lifetime Achievement award for them.

MoveOn's new ad is about one of John McCain's top advisers, who also has advised Ferdinand Marcos, Mbuto in Zaire, and rebel leader Jonas Savimbi. Then again, John McCain's filthy rich wife, whose corporate jet McCain flies on for his campaign, had $2m in investments dealing with the nasty folks in the Sudan. Anyone else seeing a pattern? Watch it, it's good.

Obama hits back:

WATERTOWN, South Dakota (Reuters) - Democratic presidential front-runner Barack Obama said on Friday President George W. Bush's "failed policies" had strengthened U.S. enemies like Iran and Hamas.

Responding to Bush's comment on Thursday that those who want to talk to Iran were like Nazi appeasers before the Second World War, Obama accused Bush of "exactly the kind of appalling attack that's divided the country and that alienates us from the world."

Obama did a terrific job of tying the albatross of Bush around the neck of McCain:

"If George Bush and John McCain want to have a debate about protecting the United States of America, that is a debate that I'm happy to have any time, any place, and that is a debate that I will win because George Bush and John McCain have a lot to answer for," Obama said in a campaign speech in South Dakota.

View it:

Bush in the 2000 campaign.

BUSH: No, I don't. I think I agree with the energy secretary that the strategic petroleum reserve is meant for a national wartime emergency.

What I think the president ought to do is he ought to get on the phone with the OPEC cartel and say we expect you to open your spigots. One reason why the price is so high is because the price of crude oil has been driven up. OPEC has gotten its supply act together, and it's driving the price, like it did in the past. And the president of the United States must jawbone OPEC members to lower the price.

And if in fact there is collusion amongst big oil, he ought to intercede there as well.

I used to be in the oil business. I was little oil -- really little oil. And so I understand the -- I understand what can happen in the marketplace.

January of this year:

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — President Bush on Tuesday urged Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC to consider the strain the high cost of oil was having on the American economy, addressing an issue that has begun to color the last year of his presidency and dominate the presidential election campaign.

Bush now:

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — With the price of oil hitting record highs, President Bush used a private visit to King Abdullah’s ranch here Friday to make a second attempt to persuade the Saudi government to increase oil production and was rebuffed yet again.

 In Part Two of my five million part series, I asked Tom Wyka to participate in the toughest interview in New Jersey politics - and also to answer a few questions for me.  That's Tom to the left there - he's always on the left (wink, wink, nudge, nudge).

Question: Let's say you win your seat and the leadership comes up to you on your first day and says, "We want to help you hold onto your seat.  What can we do for you?"  What do you answer?

Answer: This is easy.  BTW - nobody's going to have to approach me - I'll be approaching them.  I fully intend my first handshake with Speaker Pelosi will be accompanied by my comment - "I came here with a reform agenda - help me live up to my branding".   Associate me with as many reform initiatives as possible.  Those who know me will understand that I'm particularly fond of efforts like HR 1614 (Clean Elections Act), so we have to get moving on this.  I would be thrilled to face a clean elections participant in defending my seat in 2010.  And I'll be right there with them - looking for those qualifying donations.

Certainly, I may annoy some people in my own party.  But it will be my challenge to "remind" them that the Democrats are undoubtedly the party of the people.  If we can come close to claiming any branding - it's got to be that.  So the people deserve these reforms for a more responsive government.   Yes - that is the dream scenario (in which of course, long-time incumbent Congressman Tattoo, looks up at Congressman Rourke and says "this is going to be a tough one boss!")

How often does a Congressional candidate reference Fantasy Island?  Make the jump.
Question: How did you decide to run for office?  Why not start out with something smaller?
Answer: Smaller was the original plan.  But do you think running for council in Parsippany is less of a challenge?  Well the mileage is certainly less.  

My involvement in politics came from a realization that my energy as a human being - and my passion for making the world a better place for all of our children, could be best served by getting involved in politics.  One could certainly volunteer to help a charity, and I respect that path, but though cynics might ridicule this idea, I firmly believe that a principled politician can do more to help the greatest number of people than any other role in society.   I went to Camp Wellstone in January of '06 with a more local agenda, but came away thinking bigger.  It was a peculiar transition, seeming to break all the rules of how one would progress up the grassroots ladder.   But it was a pull like I had never felt before in my life.  The 11th district needed a wake-up call in the Democratic Party, and the district in general, and a strong voice was needed to show the public the real implications of what was going on nationally, and who stood for you on those issues.  

Wellstone made it all click for me.   I found it interesting how one of Wellstone's students had to convince him that community organizing is great - but electoral politics was where the rubber met the road.

So why Congress?   Believe me - my opinions on what needs to be fixed in the public arena range from Town Hall, to Trenton, to Capitol Hill, but this was the fit.  I believe I can be the strongest representative not just for the party - but to every reasonable minded citizen in the 11th that longs for a government that is more responsive to their concerns.

Question: What do you think will be the deciding factor in your election?

Answer: Name recognition and voter education.  We certainly need a minimum level of funding to get message parity and let everyone know about Rodney's record, which in reality is not a lot better than Scott Garrett.   It's clear - in conversation with many moderates who are paying attention - that his votes are going well astray of what most 11th district voters believe.  I believe that's why I picked up 6% better in '06 than any other challenger previously.  We were a lot more aggressive and made much more noise.    His hypocrisy on many issues needs to be exposed as well (e.g. his seemingly stellar reputation with veterans - while having one of the worst voting records in the NJ delegation on veterans legislative issues).   We also need the opportunity (again - message parity) to push the economy issue, his votes to continue big oil subsidies, and the lame GOP solutions to the healthcare crisis.   I believe firmly that healthcare is the perfect issue to accentuate the differences between the failure of conservative ideology (i.e. "let big business and the market solve the problem")  and progressive solutions ("let's share the risk and work together as a community to solve the issue").  But that's just an undertone of the progressive vs. conservative message.  It's going to take us a generation or two to fully expose the fallacy of the Friedman/Reagan message as an unsustainable and naïve approach to public policy.  But not getting too lofty - the main message of '08 across the country - as it will be for the 11th  .... "the Rodney/Bush way of leadership - How's that working out for ya?"

Question: How will you overcome the power of incumbency and the name recognition of your opponent?

It takes a heck of a lot less ink to spell Wyka.  That's an instant cost savings right there.  But let's frame it from that age old idea that we're told tends to stick in the voters' head that "Congress is awful - but my representative is a nice guy".    I don't want to beat the message parity dead horse, but of course it plays large.  If we make it to the right plateau with regard to getting attention - the reward is that while Rodney is generally considered to be a "nice guy" - there's nothing really there after you get past "nice guy".  From a more aggressive standpoint we're going to take an approach that whatever he has accomplished - was done as part of the same old games of Washington that generally disgusts people (earmarks, etc.).   My branding is going to be reform, reform, reform.  So much so that I'll propose to join other members of Congress on opposing earmarks (e.g. Jeff Flake across the aisle, Waxman on the Dems side, etc.)

Question: Giants or Eagles?

That's a joke - right?  I grew up in North Jersey, and I'm surprised it wasn't a Giants vs. Jets question.

I can tell you though - I was appalled that Hermann Edwards was allowed back into Giants Stadium as a coach.  But then again - all he did was scoop up a ball that should have never hit the turf, setting in motion a wake-up call that likely made the Giants the franchise they are today.  I take great inspiration from the Giants win (as an underdog of course).  They arrived in town like they owned the place, as should be the attitude of any underdog.  60 minutes of football later - the prize was theirs.  I'll take the same attitude.  Anything is possible when you Believe

upyernoz points out that since John McCain has been on every Sunday gabfest since 1874, it shouldn't be too tricky to find footage of him saying something that directly contradicts whatever he's confusedly pandering about during the campaign.

No matter who wins the next presidential election, the heavy hand of justice needs to be lightened considerably when it comes to federal prosecutions of marijuana providers.

Luke Scarmazzo and Ricardo Ruiz Montes ... were convicted of manufacturing marijuana and distributing the drug, as well as operating a continuing criminal enterprise, a felony that carries a mandatory 20-year minimum prison term, with the possibility of life behind bars.

The "continuing criminal enterprise" was the operation of a marijuana dispensary in California. Whether Scarmazzo and Montes complied with the state's medical marijuana law is in dispute, but there should be no dispute that a 20 year mandatory minimum for selling marijuana is outrageous. Just ask the jury.

Jurors deliberated for two days before delivering their verdict. One juror, Craig Will of Tuolumne County, said after the verdict that he expected the two men to get probation or a few months in prison. "I'm really appalled to discover that there's a 20-year mandatory minimum on the continuing criminal enterprise charge," he said.

If the judicial system really trusted juries to act as the democratic institution that the founders intended, juries would be told of the consequences of a conviction before deciding on a verdict. Selling a plant to people who have a medical need for it (or to anyone, for that matter) just isn't conduct that merits a 20 year sentence. The next president should (and if it's a Democrat, probably will) put an end to federal prosecutions that contravene state laws permitting the sale of medical marijuana.

And something tells me that this will be one of those gifts that’ll keep on giving…