New Barrett poll shows virtual dead heat

 A new poll released today from Barrett For Wisconsin shows that the race for Wisconsin governor is a dead heat.  Among the key findings

• Conducted Tuesday and Wednesday nights, this is the freshest, latest polling information available.
• This is the fourth poll released in the past week that shows the race either tied or separated by just a couple of points.
• Barrett leads Walker 51-47 among voters who know about Walker's potential involvement in the John Doe criminal corruption probe.  A week ago the race was tied among that same group of voters.
• Turnout key.  Barrett leads Walker 56-42 among people who did not vote in 2012.

Read the memo below.

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Frederick Yang

DATE: May 31, 2012

RE: Latest Poll Results in the Wisconsin Governor’s Race

The findings of our just-completed poll (conducted May 29 and 30) show that the race is extremely close as we head into the last few days before next Tuesday’s election.  We interviewed 821 likely voters over the last two nights (margin of error +3.5%), which means our poll data is more recent than the Marquette University poll (finished interviewing Saturday May 26) AND the Greater Wisconsin poll (finished interviewing Monday May 28).

Currently, the race stands at 50% Walker and 48% Barrett, which essentially mirrors the findings of our poll from last week. As we noted last week, the dynamics in the election were starting to shift with the paid and earned media focus by the Barrett campaign and its allies on Governor Walker’s anti-middle class record AND the John Doe situation. 

Our polling has shown that the two candidates are now at PARITY in terms of personal favorability (Walker: 49% positive, 48% negative, Barrett: 43% positive, 42% negative) for the FIRST time in this campaign. More importantly, Governor Walker’s job performance has now strayed into negative territory, with a 41% plurality of Wisconsinites giving him a POOR rating compared to just 29% excellent.  AND, the Governor has a solid net negative job rating among Independents.

It is clear that cumulative impact of the constant newspaper stories about the John Doe situation AND the paid TV are taking a toll on Scott Walker; last week, among voters who were familiar with the John Doe situation, the race was tied.  NOW, Tom Barrett leads among these voters by 51% to 47%.

Finally, we note the continued enthusiasm of Democrats and other that can make a difference in what is shaping up to be a close race.  As we have known all along, this election will come down to turnout, so the “million dollar question” is who will turn out next Tuesday. 

Our survey shows that an expanded electorate clearly helps Mayor Barrett: he has a 56% to 42% advantage among voters we sampled who did NOT vote in the 2010 election.