Neumann can't win? Don't be so sure

John Nichols, of the Capital Times, The Nation and other lefty pubs, is a smart guy.

But -- you knew there was a but coming -- he likes Scott Walker just a little too much, and has let that get in the way of his political common sense in a recent column.

It's headlined, "Neumann can't win but could do damage."

Neumann, in Nichols's world, is so extremely conservative he could never win a general election, and so far behind Scott Walker that the only way he could beat him in a primary is with a vicious negative campaign.

First of all, there's not a nickel's worth of ideological difference between Walker and Neumann. Watch them scramble to see who can get the farthest to the right in the primary, outdo each other in promising to throw programs for the ill, the young, the elderly and the poor under the bus, to slash government to the bone, to trash climate change science, rail against unions, and force women to give up their reproductive rights. Then tell me who's the most extreme, if you can.

But aside from that, I would remind Nichols and other pundits of the 1988 campaign for US Senate, in which a late-starting, well-funded, positive campaign won a tough Democratic primary and the general election.

The candidate was Herb Kohl. Bill Proxmire had announced in the fall of 1987, a year before his term was to end, that he would retire.

Prominent Democrats quickly jumped in: Ed Garvey, who had narrowly lost a Senate race in 1986. Tony Earl, the former governor, who had just lost his job to Tommy Thompson, but was well-liked by Dems. Jim Moody, a Milwaukee Congressman. Doug LaFollette, secretary of state and winner of several statewide races. A formidable field.

Kohl didn't get into the race until June 1, after the others has been at it for six months or more. He'd never run for office, but had a great record as a successful businessman and had goodwill from buying the Milwaukee Bucks to keep them in Milwaukee.

Kohl went on television the day he announced, and stayed on until the election. His messages were consistently positive and issue based, introducing himself and outlining his positions on issues.

He came under fierce attack from the other Dems on a daily basis once they realized he was a serious threat. Moody saw the writing on the wall and dropped out, keeping his House seat.

And Kohl, who self-funded his campaign, won the primary.

Mark Neumann is no Herb Kohl. But he is reportedly willing to spend $3-million or more of his own money. He has a message --a record as a businessman who has created jobs. And he's running against two candidates from Milwaukee, Walker and Tom Barrett, as a candidate from the "real" Wisconsin.

He doesn't have the institutional support, the insider endorsements, or the campaign infrastructure to match Walker's, we're told. And that's true. Herb Kohl didn't have it when he got in the race, either -- five months from now.

This is not to predict a Neumann vistory, or even that he will necessarily even stay in until the primary.

But if he does stay in, puts a smart campaign in place, and spends $3-million or more on the primary with a good message, don't be so quick to count him out. 

POSTSCRIPT: And let's not forget that Neumann gave Russ Feingold a real scare in 1998, losing the Senate race to Feingold in a squeaker by 2 per cent.