via mal contends - Robert Novak opines that "Republican losses in Congress will range from bad to catastrophic ... ," and yet Novak still contends that McCain has an even 50 shot at winning the election because of the static some-five-point-lead Obama has enjoyed at the polls for weeks.

"The complete lack of movement in the national polls is good news for Sen. John McCain and bad news for Sen. Barack Obama, even as the Democrat continues to hold a modest lead," writes Novak, whom we hope stays with us for decades to come.

But since when does a newcomer, non-incumbent presidential nominee blow away his challenger in the polls before the conventions and Labor Day—the first Monday in September. Can anyone name one example?

As Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato write:

Great piece in the CrystalBall exposing the lie that the American public remains virtually tied in their preferences in the 2008 presidential horse race.

Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato write:

While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed--historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months--point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November.
Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up.

But these facts and data tell a story that on broadcast TV just cannot be widely told. It just would not be fair to John McCain.