Tommy for Senate? The race may look better from DC than it does in Wisconsin

Tommy Thompson for US Senate?

Really?

I'd like to think Tommy is more politically savvy than to take on Russ Feingold, but it's possible that, with enough encouragement and flattery from Republicans who don't like their current candidates, that he could talk himself into running this year.

One thing we know for sure: He likes to be touted. I've never known a political figure who didn't like to be mentioned for some higher office. Tommy takes it a step farther and starts the buzz himself.

There's a certain Brett Favre quality to it. At least half a dozen times since he left the governorship in 2001 -- and left Wisconsin in a deficit hole it has never been able to dig out of -- Tommy has floated the idea he might run for something. "Governor, US Senator, Mayor of Elroy," he likes to say. "Who knows?"

We can rule out mayor of Elroy, although he still owns a home there. And it's a little late for the governor's race, with Scott Walker and Mark Neumann already in, and most Tommyites already committed to one or the other.

Then there's the US Sente race, where the guy who appears to be the leading GOP candidate, multi-millionaire Terrence Wall, has only paid personal state income taxes once in the last 10 years. That could be a problem.

The other candidate, Dave Westlake, is a Tea Partier who's only going to raise money by selling blaze orange T-shirts. (Hunting season comes well after the November election.) So count him out, no matter what the political climate. It ain't that nutty out there. The news stories have started again. Can a poll, showing Tommy in a close matchup with Feingold, be far behind?

So, after a game-changing Senate race in Massachusetts, who can blame the national GOP types if they're actually trying to get Tommy into the race this time?

Thing is, the grass in Wisconsin may look a little greener from inside the Beltway than it does out here on the ground.

Republican recruiters no doubt see Tommy as he sees himself -- as a popular former governor who could walk back into office almost any time he chose to. That, incidentally, is Tommy's own view of himself.

Will Tommy be seduced, as others have when their ears were filled with flattery and promises of help?

Maybe it's time for a little reality check.

Tommy Thompson was, indeed, a popular governor who was elected more times (4) and served longer (14 years) than anyone else in state history.

Does that make him a sure thing against Russ Feingold, a pretty popular guy in his own right, who's already been elected three times and has served 17 years in the Senate?

It could be a great matchup -- for Feingold, a reformer who's fought to clean up campaigns and regulate lobbying, against Thompson, a Washington lobbyist and influence peddler who has made millions of dollars since leaving the government, raking money in from from health care profiteers and other unsavory groups. He thought his finances were such an issue that during his ill-fated presidential campaign in 2008 he twice got delays in filing, eventually revealing -- after he had already dropped out -- that he had earned $4.6-million in 2006. Who knows how much he's made since then, or whether he still owns stock in the big banks, drug and oil companies that are so popular these days? We'll all know, if he runs for the Senate. (Feingold, by the way, is the Senator with the lowest net worth.)

There's also the myth of Tommy the invincible campaigner, roaring around Wisconsin on his Harley, crushing every Democrat who challenged him.

Dare we point out that Tommy never had a real race once he was in office, and has never had to take a punch. After upsetting Tony Earl in 1986, Tommy and shadow governor Jim Klauser squeezed money from anyone who wanted to do business with the state, amassing huge warchests and vastly outspending his series of weak, underfunded opponents. He so dominated Tom Loftus, Chuck Chvala and Ed Garvey on the airwaves that he really was untested.

That's one of many things that would be different this time. Feingold's camapign had $3-million in the bank last fall, and he's had a campaign staff working to build a statewide infrastructure ever since his last campaign in 2004. Tommy doesn't have a campaign committee, a campaign, or a dollar in the bank less than 10 months before the election.

Feingold works hard, visits every county for a town meeting at least once a year, so he's laid the groundwork and is taking nothing for granted. Tommy's been flying around the country making speeches, picking up checks and lobbying.

Tommy hasn't run a statewide campaign here since 1998 against Garvey, and his 2008 presidential campaign was mostly noticed for a series of missteps and blunders, including embarrassing statements about Jews and gays. He spent much of his time apologizing or walking back his remarks.

In "Game Change," the best seller chronicling the presidential race, Thompson rates one mention, in a list of candidates:

"Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, Tommy Thompson, Duncan Hunter and Jim Gilmore, all of whom were such long shots that they were better described as no shots.

His name didn't even make the index.

Will Tommy run? Hell, I don't know. But if I had to answer I'd say no.

Tommy may want to run, but he doesn't want to lose. That's why, when the dancing is done, he may well choose to sit out this race.