As the saying goes, all you need to win is 50% + 1... and the inverse of that is that all you need to lose is 50% - 1. Right now, even though he has saturated the air waves for the last five months, Gov. Walker's poll results haven't moved at all: He's still in the crapper.
Right now, less than 50% of the state (49.5%) has a favorable opinion of Walker. In a head-to-head with Barrett, its 46.7% to 45.3% -- well within the poll's 3.8% margin of error. Against Falk, La Follette and Vinehout, Walker is under 50% against all of them.
In the primary race, Barrett leads with 36%, Falk is next with 29%, and Vinehout and La Follette each have 8%.
Among democrats the favorability / unfavorability opinion or "likeability index" break down looks like this: Barrett is 34%/27% or +7, Falk is 27%/39% or -11, Vinehout 10%/13% or -3 and La Follette is 16%/14% or +2. Now, let's compare that to last month where Barrett was 30%/27% or +3%, Falk 22%/28% or -6%, Vinehout was 10%/14% and La Follette wasn't polled.
Of course, since last month there has been ads run both for and against Falk, which would explain why both her favorability and unfavorability increased. However, while her favorability jumped by five points, her unfavorability jumped up by eleven points.
More interesting is that in last month's poll Falk was 24% /17% or +7% among moderates and now she is 25% / 33% or - 8%. That's a huge, 15 point swing in one month.
Meanwhile, Barrett, who has been almost completely quiet, has actually improved among moderates: He has gone from 36%/14% or +22% last month to 44%/21% or +23% this month.
The obvious reason is that Falk's campaign to secure the nomination is hurting her with moderates. And the obvious question: Can she get those moderates back in a general if she wins the nomination? Probably, but with a very, very short election season everyone involved must keep their eye on the prize: Beating Walker